China’s Cruise Missiles

Januar 11, 2010 Martin Senn ballistic missile, cruise missile, missile defense No Comments

Check out the Martin Andrew’s China Brief (Vol. 10, Issue 1) on “China’s Conventional Cruise and Ballistic Missile Force Modernization and Deployment”.

The Russians clearly regard the threat from China’s ballistic and cruise missiles as serious, deploying S-400 missile and radar systems along its eastern borders ostensively to protect Russia from wayward North Korean missiles (RIA Novosti, August 26, 2009). Interestingly, no North Korean missiles are recorded as having accidentally landed in Russia.  North Korean missiles are launched eastwards toward the Yellow Sea away from Russia and China. The S-400 deployment did however coincide nicely with China’s October 1 parade.

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A 2008 U.S. government estimate reported that all of China’s 300 km range DF-11 and 600 km range DF-15 SRBMs facing Taiwan amounted to a combined total of between 970 and 1,070 missiles along with 200 GLCMs (Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People’s Republic of China 2008). The amount of these launchers facing Taiwan is around 210 to 250, assuming each DF-15 TEL is capable of firing three missiles, and each DF-11 can fire five missiles before needing to be refurbished. For every DF-15 TEL deployed there needs to be one missile-reloading vehicle and two for each DF-11, as each reloading vehicle is assumed to carry two missiles. Add a command and communications vehicle or two and this means a lot of road movement by large vehicles that could easily attract attention.

Well, it seems that there is an increasing potential for a trilateral (US-RF-PRC) arms dynamic …

UPDATE: The New York Times reports (January 11, 2010) that, according to Chinese media, China tested “ground-based midcourse missile interception technology” on Monday. The NYT report also quotes Hans Kristensen of the FAS as arguing that ”[t]here is an obvious concern in Beijing that they need an effective anti-ballistic missile defense in some form.”

NWFZ, RRW, and ROK

August 19, 2009 Martin Senn Nuclear (Dis)armament, ballistic missile, cruise missile 1 Comment

Good news first: The Treaty of Pelindaba, which establishes a African Nulcear Weapons Free Zone in Africa, has entered into force. The CNS has a good article on the African NWFZ and an even better map of all NWFZ (click to enlarge):

Now the bad news:

First of all, NTI reports that the Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program could make a comeback, at least if SecDef Gates had his way. The standard argument ist that the US nuclear arsenal has to be reliable/credibe in order to suppress nuclear acquisition by allies such as South Korea or Japan.

Well, the former may be well under way to developing its own deterrent. Lars @ Missile Monitor has an interesting blog entry on South Korea’s ballistic and cruise missiles.